EU Referendum – When will the touch paper be lit?


EU Referendum – When will the touch paper be lit? ...

EU Referendum - when will the touch paper be lit?

With less than 30 days until the vote, is the debate really capturing the public’s imagination or are we yet to see each campaign switch into top gear? We have taken a quick snapshot over the last 3 weeks of activity for you to form your own opinion.

But before we do, let’s have a look at our overall data this week.

Weekly Summary of Activity

Voting Intention/Predicted Result

equimedia's EU referendum prediction tracker - as of 25th May 2016

Our overall projected result remains unchanged from last week with the stay campaign forecast to attract 57% of the vote.

Regional Summary of Activity

Chart showing regional predictions for EU referendum - as of 25th May 2016

Week on week there has been a 1% shift towards the Leave campaign in Scotland. The stay campaign appears to have secured more support in both Wales and Northern Ireland. The percentage of intended voting appears to remain unchanged in England.

Key Topics Summary

Graph showing key online discussion topics around the EU referendum - as of 25th May 2016

The topics discussed or views shared appear to be around ‘Jobs and Employment’ and ‘Business and Trade’. It’s worth noting that general views on the “Economy” as a whole and “Immigration” has seen a change.

Has the public’s interest been ignited?

So, we are nearing the midpoint in our referendum analysis but how has the public responded to campaigning so far?

Social volume remains measurable but constant

While a gradual small upwards trend is detectable in social conversation, overall volumes have been similar across each of our three weeks of analysis. Online reporting and social commentary are regularly visible however the referendum campaign has yet to become a leading talking point for a sustained period.

Strong sentiment remains consistent and low

Opinions have shown no detectable shift towards either strong positive or negative sentiment with strong sentiment accounting for around 10% of social commentary.

What are we likely to see in June?

With turnout currently projected around 55-60% one thing is for sure, this referendum is likely to be far less emotively charged than 2014’s Scottish Referendum which achieved a turnout out of over 84%. We will be tracking intention to vote in the final weeks of the campaign.

Don’t forget to check back on the equimedia blog each week for our latest updates and you can check out our historical posts at the links below.


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