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EU Referendum – Will turnout be decisive?

Written by Social Team | 08-Jun-2016 12:43:00


Turnout could have a strong influence on the final referendum result, so we have had a look into our data to try and measure the public’s desire to make it to the polling booth.

But before we do, let’s have a look at our overall data this week.

Weekly Summary of Activity

Voting Intention/Predicted Result

Data suggests the ‘Leave’ campaign has continued with last week’s momentum drawing the race closer together although the projected result still identifies ‘Stay’ with a healthy lead.

Regional Summary of Activity

England continues to be the country with the closest set of results, but all nations continue to favour ‘Stay.’

Key Topics Summary

‘Jobs and Employment’ took centre stage this week, making up around a quarter of all monitored topic conversation.

Who will go to the polls?

With a referendum of such importance due in less than a month, it would be fair to say a high turnout should be expected, however data strongly suggests that voters will be far less energised than the previous Scottish referendum which achieved an impressive turnout of nearly 85% of those registered to vote.

Currently we are projecting turnout for the EU referendum to be around
65%.

Analysis of social conversation has however identified a steady increase in overall voting intention, with June delivering a significant step increase likely to continue as we near polling day.

Other posts in this series

EU Referendum Week 1 - What does the data say?

EU Referendum Week 2 - Can hashtags provide insights?

EU Referendum Week 3 - When will the touch paper be lit?

EU Referendum Week 4 - Driving social followers

EU Referendum Week 5 - Will turnout be decisive?

EU Referendum Week 6 - Is social data underrepresenting female opinion?

EU Referendum Week 7 - Time for the undecided voters to make their decision

EU Referendum Reflection - Age the deciding factor