2022 is offering something that no year has provided since 2012 and once again it’s due to a Jubilee celebration; an extra bank holiday! Not only that, but the Late May Bank Holiday has been shifted to Thursday, June 2nd to combine with the Platinum Jubilee celebration to give the UK another 4-day weekend. Yippee!
Besides the street party, what else do we need to plan for?
Whilst most people will be celebrating the additional time off, at a time when the weather should be hot and sunny, it’s left some of us thinking about how this will impact sales, leads and revenues.
There are 3 impacts from this change to consider:
- The potential change in volume of business in the last week of May due to the removal of the usual bank holiday
- The impact of a 3-day week at the beginning of June, when looking at run-rates and forecasted results
- Possible compensating uplift in the following weeks.
What does the Government think the impact will be?
The government has conducted its own impact assessment of the Jubilee bank holiday using data from previous Jubilee celebrations in 2012 and 2002. They found that when considered within one month or quarter, there is likely to be a sharp negative impact on output, as the loss in output is likely to exceed the expected impact from losing one working day. Only when considering production in later months do we see an increase to offset the drop the additional bank holiday produced. In short, for the majority of sectors, June is going to see a drop in production due to the loss of the working days but some sectors such as retail and hospitality will see an increase during this period.
When considering the previous Jubilee in 2012, the ONS took a retrospective look at the potential impact an extra bank holiday had on UK GDP and estimated that there was likely to have been a 0.3 – 0.4% decrease in GDP over Q2. The government’s impact assessment concluded, based on previous celebrations, that there would be a negative impact of between £2.21bn - £2.57bn to UK GDP.
What will the impact be for your business?
So the question is, have you considered the impact of the Platinum Jubilee bank holiday celebrations when forecasting and planning for May, June and beyond? Are you worried about a slow start to the month? Or do you work in a sector that might even buck the trend and see an uplift?
Remember to consider the impact the long weekend will have on your potential online sales and consider this in your budget flighting and forecasting:
- Think about the impact on the end of May – will you see increased sales Year on Year?
- Think about how Early June sales will be impacted – the weather forecast is looking good so online could be slow but will it pick up later in June? Or vice versa if you sell bunting, paper plates, hats and streamers!
Download the Government Platinum Jubilee impact assessment here